COVID-19 Wuhan Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) - Live Updates from Liuyang China.   Impact on Fireworks Industry.

Summary

- Shipping through Shanghai has resumed for both Hunan & Jiangxi goods.

- Factories have reopened.   Production is somewhat reduced do to lack of workers and raw materials.   New regulations are also increasing the complexity for production and shipping.

- Many schools have not reopened making it difficult for parents to return to work.

- Covid-19 Factual Data

March 31, 2020 - Shipping for both Jiangxi & Hunan goods has resumed.  Production is returning to normal, with the exception that many smaller factories will not reopen due to the stricter standards after the Dec. 4th explosion.    Also, in general many new regulations have been put in place that is increasing the complexity and cost of production and shipping.

March 7, 2020 - The global death rate of Covid-19 stands about 3.4%.   However, looking at the death rate by age tells us that the virus is mainly serious in older men and also people with other medical conditions.    It is often argued that the flu has a lower death rate, but what is missed is that the flu infects millions of people every year.   If Covid-19 spreads to the larger community and also infects millions then it is likely the death rate would more closely match the rate based on the age of who is infected.  So 0.2% or two people in 1,000 for a 39 year old.  Regardless of age, healthy people without other serious health conditions only have a 0.9% death rate.

• The Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission published on Feb. 28 by WHO, ^[2] which is based on 55,924 laboratory confirmed cases. The report notes that "The Joint Mission acknowledges the known challenges and biases of reporting crude CFR early in an epidemic" (see also our discussion on: How to calculate the mortality rate during an outbreak)
• A paper by the Chinese CCDC released on Feb. 17, which is based on 72,314 confirmed, suspected, and asymptomatic cases of COVID-19 in China as of Feb. 11, and was published in the Chinese Journal of Epidemiology ^[1]

March 5, 2020 - Shipping through Shanghai has resumed but is limited to only Hunan goods at the moment.

Feb 28, 2020 - The week has been filled with optimism but shipping has still not yet resumed.  The expectation is that shipping will resume very soon, but each day has led to a new delay.  Cases of the virus have peaked and are now tracking downward for a mid-March resolution, however the concern is that spring will bring increased person-to-person contact and the virus could resurface.  Deaths outside Hubei are still minimal, thus suggesting this virus is more contagious, but milder then SARS.

Feb 23, 2020 - On Saturday Feb 22nd the Liuyang Government (Specifically the Department of Emergency Management of Liuyang & the Firecracker and Firework Industry Development Center of Liuyang) issued a document titled "Notice of Resumption of Work". This document does not give a blanket "green light" for all factories to open, nor does it address the many other issues such as the "Shanghai Shipping Issue". However, it does make it clear that the Liuyang government fully supports reopening of the factories that meet the legal safety requirements and implement a virus control system. The government is also providing free masks for a limited time, and creating a reward system for factories that encourage workers to return quickly and recover normal levels of production. So while this does not guarantee that all factories can open and it does not eliminate the very real challenges of passing the safety inspections, it does indicate that the local government does fully support the resumption of work. We are strongly encouraged by this support. It does not mean everything is solved and advise that importers still need to remain flexible and expect later shipments vs early shipments.

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